Questionnaire: Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence

This brief questionnaire aims to gauge how people view progress towards AI's original goals of intelligent machines, and what impacts they would associate with reaching these goals.

Please fill in! (but only once)

The results of the questionnaire for a) invited experts and b) the general public can be found on our AI-polls page.

Thank you for your time!

Vincent C. Müller & Nick Bostrom
FHI, Oxford Martin School, Faculty of Philosophy, University of Oxford
July 2014

A. The Future of AI

Define a "high-level machine intelligence" (HLMI) as one that can carry out most human professions at least as well as a typical human.

2. Assume for the purpose of this question that human scientific activity continues without major negative disruption. By what year would you see a 10%/50%/90% probability for such HLMI to exist?

10%
50%
90%

 

Year reached:

 

Never:

 

3. Assume for the purpose of this question that such HLMI will at some point exist. How likely do you then think it is that within (2 years / 30 years) thereafter, there will be machine intelligence that greatly surpasses the performance of any human in most professions?

Within 2 years
Within 30 years

Probability:

 

4. Assume for the purpose of this question that such HLMI will at some point exist. How positive or negative would be the overall impact on humanity, in the long run? Please indicate a probability for each option. (The sum should be equal to 100%.)

Extremely good
On balance good
More or less neutral
On balance bad
Extremely bad (existential catastrophe)
 
 

Total: 0%

B. About you
 
 

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